America’s Favorite Wrong Number

The Very Long Confidence Game

Photo by Juan Córdova on Unsplash

Every month since 1967, the Conference Board has asked about 3,000 households how they feel about buying a new refrigerator. That data becomes the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

The CCI is part of the economic indicator alphabet—cited by the Fed, tracked by Wall Street, and reported by the media—because it produces a number that signals how consumers might shop on Black Friday.

But unlike CPI, GDP, or unemployment data—generated by the U.S. government—the CCI is a private product. Owned and produced by the Conference Board, an independent, non-governmental entity.

The government handles “hard data.”
The Conference Board handles feelings.

The People’s Mood Ring

Sentiment—feelings—doesn’t fit neatly into accounting standards. Markets can’t trade on feelings. But they’ll happily trade on a number—the CCI—standing in for them.

Consumer spending drives 70 percent of U.S. GDP. If the CCI is positive, Americans might buy houses, cars, refrigerators. So confidence becomes a proxy for future economic activity—even when it’s wrong.

The CCI is also called, by some, the contrarian indicator. Essentially the tarot card of indicators.

Feelings are unreliable predictors of actual behavior. People routinely report gloom while simultaneously upgrading their appliances.

Economists have long derided the CCI as rubbish, partly because of timing. Survey data is collected early in the month but reported weeks later. If consumers lose jobs or benefits in between? No new refrigerator.

It’s the holiday season, so naturally the next CCI will drop in the final week of December. In sync with credit card statements.

Antiques Data Roadshow

Most major indicators were designed for a 1950s economy: one breadwinner, stable prices, rotary phones. They’re artifacts measuring certainty in an age of precarity.

And yet, the CCI sits proudly on dashboards from the Fed to Fidelity.

The Conference Board snapped to that reality in 2021.

After decades of mailed surveys handled by Nielsen, CCI data collection was outsourced to Toluna—a global market-research firm that connects “millions of consumers and brands” through its “influencer community.”

Toluna recruits survey respondents through a platform called Toluna Influencers. “Share your opinion on products and services of brands you love,” the website promises, “and get rewarded for your participation in online surveys!”

Rewards come in points, redeemable for gift cards. Cash-out minimum: $10.

It is not known if Americans providing the nation’s monthly confidence data get gift cards for their service.

But the confidence levels of a $30 trillion economy are now measured by the same company that tests toothpaste ads.

Much More Than Feelings

The Conference Board releases the headline CCI number for free. But pricing for the detailed sentiment breakdown—by age, income, region, and state—isn’t published. Pricing is available from the Conference Board.

And now, the Conference Board also produces a Premium Dataset offering even more granular slices of American sentiment, going back more than a decade. More feelings, more money.

The Conference Board is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. According to its 2023 filings, it brought in $99.8 million in revenue. Of that, $84.2 million—84 percent—came from “program services”: membership fees and data subscriptions.

Toluna, it’s worth noting, now offers something called Synthetic Personas, which are AI-generated “survey respondents” that deliver, in Toluna’s own words, “decision-ready intelligence at the speed and scale of AI.”

There is no evidence these are used for the CCI.

No wrongdoing is alleged. All parties deny everything.

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Disclaimer: This is a work of satire. Real economists, regulators, and data providers remain entirely innocent until proven otherwise by someone with subpoena power. Any implications are humorous, not factual. Or is it the reverse? Clarity from my attorneys is pending.

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